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Real Estate Boom Challenging Central Alberta Resources (2006-05-12)
By HARLEY RICHARDS Advocate business editor May 12 2006
Record home sales are putting a strain on the systems and people processing the transactions. Bryan Lynn, president of the Red Deer and District Real Estate Board Co-op, said Thursday the volume of real estate deals closing in Red Deer and elsewhere in the province is overwhelming staff at the land titles office, as well as people like appraisers, lawyers and bankers. "Land titles are running about nine days right now," said Lynn, who operates Royal LePage Central in Stettler. "In a quiet time we get three-day turn-around." The Real Estate Board recorded 1,540 residential sales through the multiple listing service in Red Deer and the surrounding area between January and April. During the same four-month period last year, the tally was 1,084. "The more properties we sell, the busier the banks are, the busier the lawyers are, the busier land titles are and home inspectors and everything else," said Lynn. "We're just all short of personnel to do it any faster." An apparent solution might be the hiring of more people. But in labour-challenged Alberta, this isn't necessarily an option. "If we could send our land titles transactions to Saskatchewan it might speed things up, but in Alberta we're just short of people," said Lynn. It's realtors' responsibility to ensure buyers and sellers are aware of the extended timelines needed to close home sales, he said. That means at least three weeks to a month between the time conditions are removed and the closing date. Clients who insist on a quicker turnaround should be prepared to accept the consequences - such as hefty interest charges in the case of buyers and interim financing for vendors relying on the sale proceeds to buy another house. Lynn said Alberta is probably alone when it comes to the land transfer crunch, although British Columbia and Ontario might be experiencing similar problems. He chalks it up to the prosperity this province is currently enjoying. "With all the good stuff that's happening, we also have some bad stuff. "We're all adjusting." |
Home building remains torrid in Red Deer (2006-05-09)
Residential construction activity in Red Deer remains ahead of last year’s pace. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported Monday that work started on 141 homes in April: 82 single-detached houses and 59 units in multi-family projects. A year ago, CMHC recorded 118 housing starts for the city, with 78 of these single-detached and 40 in the multi-family category. During the first four months of 2006, work was started on 445 homes, up from 327 for the same period last year. Single-detached starts increased to 328 from 222 and multi-family starts went to 117 from 105. Housing starts in Alberta’s seven largest centres was up 6.4 per cent last month, as compared with April 2005. This was despite the fact starts on multi-family units fell 12 per cent. Nationally, housing starts fell by a dramatic 13.3 per cent in April from one year earlier. Residential construction starts dropped to an annualized rate of 218,100 last month, down from a revised figure of 251,700 reported in April, CMHC said. Still, the slowdown doesn’t mean the party is over just yet for home builders and buyers who have been enjoying a red-hot market, analysts said. And it likely won’t deter the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates, some added. Western Canada in particular is expected to remain a hotbed of residential construction activity, fuelled by an exploding resource economy, drawing a steady stream of workers, as well as relatively low mortgage rates. “Despite April’s broad-based decline, there are good reasons to believe that the new housing market remains a pillar of strength,” said Toronto Dominion Bank economist Sebastien Lavoie. But watch out for further weakness in Atlantic and central Canada, where economic growth has suffered as tourism and manufacturing weather a soaring loonie that has jumped about 40 per cent in value in the past four years. By mid-day Monday, the loonie was trading at 89.94 cents US — a bit softer than highs of more than 90.3 cents hit last week. Monday’s housing report surprised financial markets, which had been expecting a seasonally adjusted figure of about 230,000 national housing starts — considerably more than the 218,100 reported. Some pointed to the volatility often seen in multiple-dwelling construction and said the April statistics don’t suggest significant weakening in the economy. And that means the Bank of Canada could raise its key short-term interest rate at its next opportunity on May 24 to 4.25 per cent. Since last fall, it has raised its trend-setting rate from a low 2.50 per cent to cool the economy just enough to keep a lid on inflation. Declines in new home construction were noted in every region of the country last month. But multiple family construction in urban areas was hit hardest, dropping by 22 per cent — its lowest level since last August, said Lavoie. Construction starts on single-family homes also fell last month by six per cent, marking the third straight negative month. That was a fairly mild, orderly slide compared with the upheaval in multiple-unit construction, noted CMHC. With files from Canadian Press By harley richards Advocate business editor |
Alberta Tops for Real Estate Investment (2006-05-04)
Calgary Herald
Published: Thursday, May 04, 2006
CALGARY -- Alberta is the best place in the country to buy residential real estate for long-term investment, according to the Real Estate Investment Network.
In a list of top places in Canada to invest, Edmonton, Grande Prairie, Alta., and Calgary are noted as the hot spots in the country for buyers to make money in residential real estate.
"This is for long-term fundamentals. Long-term hold," said Don Campbell, a real estate consultant, author and president of the Real Estate Investment Network.
"The next three years all kinds of regions across the country are going to look spectacular. But these ones will outperform over the long period of time."
The rest of the top places for residential real estate investment include Kitchener-Waterloo in Ontario, Fort St. John, B.C., Barrie, Ont., Halifax and Hamilton.
Richard Corriveau, regional economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. for the Prairies and Territories, said the "one thing you can bank on is future appreciation."
"The difficulty for investors will be how do you cash flow a property. You purchase a new condominium, a new single-family home (they) might be very difficult to cash flow a property. A renter might not pay your carrying costs but you'll get the return at the back end of the sale once your home appreciates," Corriveau said.
He said it is difficult to determine how many people are buying residential real estate for purely investment purposes as opposed to living in the properties.
"Anecdotally we hear upwards of a quarter of all new condominiums," Corriveau added.
"The question remains whether they are speculative investors and they intend to flip the property prior to the structure even being completed or whether they intend to rent it to people.
Campbell said that in British Columbia there's no question the Fort St. John region (and Dawson Creek) is "the No. 1 place to buy for investors."
In Ontario, it's the Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge triangle.
"We're actually calling that the economic Alberta of Ontario. It's got strong, strong growth and lots of in-migration and average income is increasing quickly. If I was to invest anywhere outside of Alberta, that would be my second choice. Absolutely," Campbell said. |
MLS ® home sales set new quarterly records (2006-04-30)
National existing home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached their highest quarterly level on record in the first quarter of 2006, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association.
A seasonally adjusted* total of 125,142 homes were sold through MLS® in the first quarter of 2006 – up 2.4 per cent from levels recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, and two-tenths of a percentage point above its previous quarterly record set in the third quarter of last year. New quarterly records were set in Alberta, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland.
“MLS® home sales are running strong, reaching the highest level of any quarter on record for both the number of units sold and total dollar volume in the first quarter of 2006,” said Alan Tennant, FRI, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association. “Housing markets are in good shape overall, and there continues to be high consumer demand for resale housing right across the country.”
On a seasonally adjusted* monthly basis, some 41,552 homes traded hands via the MLS® in March 2006, representing the sixth highest monthly level for sales activity on record. It was a decline of 1.4 per cent from the second highest level for monthly activity recorded in February 2006.
The monthly decrease in sales was largely the result of declines in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. By contrast, sales activity in Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia was up from February levels. In fact, monthly sales in Nova Scotia set a new record in March.
Seasonally adjusted* new residential listings on MLS® numbered 195,341 units in the first quarter of 2006 – an increase of 3.3 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2005, and just 0.5 per cent below its highest quarterly level ever, posted fifteen years ago. New listings reached their highest quarterly level on record in the first quarter of 2006 in Quebec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland.
Seasonally adjusted* new listings numbered 65,378 in March – virtually unchanged from the 65,252 units listed in February. With sales activity having dipped by a little more than new listings this month, the resale housing market in Canada became slightly more balanced in March compared to February.
The value of seasonally adjusted* sales activity amounted to $33.4 billion in the first quarter of 2006, which represented an increase of 5.8 per cent from the previous quarter and its highest quarterly level on record. New quarterly records for dollar volume were reached in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted dollar volume inched down by less than one percent in March from its all-time record in February 2006 to $11.2 billion in March.
The national MLS® residential average price rose by 12.4 per cent year-over-year to $274,163 in March – its largest year-over-year gain since May 2004. Average price in the first quarter of 2006 climbed 12.1 per cent compared to the same quarter in 2005, representing its biggest year-over-year growth in quarterly average price since the 1980s.
Average price reached its highest monthly level on record in March on a national basis, and in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Prince Edward Island. Average price also reached its highest quarterly level on a national basis, and in all provinces except Quebec.
“Consumers should talk to their REALTOR® to gain a full understanding of local market conditions,” added CREA President Alan Tennant, FRI. Information about the services provided by a REALTOR® can be found on the www.realtor.ca web site.
“Rising household incomes and upbeat consumer confidence are keeping resale housing activity on a tear, even with rising home prices and interest rates,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Alberta continues to lead the way, with sales activity having accounted for almost three-quarters of the national increase.” “Interest rates are widely expected to near their peak,” added Klump. “The continued ability to negotiate a discount off advertised mortgage rates is also helping keep sales activity high by keeping monthly payments down and affordability reasonable.”
In May, CREA will publish a revised forecast for MLS® home sales activity and prices that reflects the continued strength in MLS® housing markets in the first quarter.
* Unit sales and dollar volume data are stated on a seasonally adjusted basis; average price is unadjusted. |
Area home prices soar (2006-04-12)
Area home prices soar
Red Deer Express
04/12/06
For the third consecutive month, real estate sales have shot up in Central Alberta.
Numbers released this week by the Red Deer & District Real Estate Board Co-op Ltd. reflect a hot market with no signs of slowing down.
March saw 518 properties sold compared to 386 during the same month last year.
That’s a 34% increase in sales during a drop in both the number of listings received last month and in the overall number of active listings.
Active listings closed at 1,169 which is down 27.8% from one year ago.
New listings received this March were 552, a decline of 16% compared to last year’s 642 listings.
Prices are also reflecting demand with the average price of a single family detached home in Red Deer jumping 35% in one year to $268,522 last month.
That’s compared to $199,512 in March of 2005 and it also represents a hike of 3.5% from February of this year.
Townhouses in Red Deer sold for an average of $162,819 last month – an increase of 32% from 2005 when the average was $123,231.
The average sale price for an acreage with a home was $290,258 – an increase of 32% from 2005 when the average price was $219,823.
The average price of a single family detached home in rural communities surrounding the city increased by 22.6% in one year to $190,979 in March compared to $155,779 in March of last year.
Emphasizing just how much sales have escalated in a short time, the average price for a single family detached house jumped 10.5% compared to this past February.
Analysts say in such a rapidly growing market, expert advice is a must.
“In this type of market, with quick turnover of properties, it is more important than ever that buyers and sellers use the services of a realtor to get the best price and value for their properties,” said Brian Lynn, president of the Red Deer & District Real Estate Board Co-op.
“A realtor will keep them informed, prepare and guide them through what could be a time-sensitive decision.”
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Housing market remains red-hot (2006-04-11)
Housing market remains red-hot
OTTAWA (CP) - Canada's red-hot housing market showed little sign of cooling off in March, instead setting a pace not seen in 18 years but also raising the likelihood of higher interest rates. Housing starts rose to 252,300 units in March, up from 242,500 in February, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday. That marks the strongest March on record since 1987 and was much more robust than analysts expected. But while some experts continued to warn the pace can't continue, others said there's no need to worry just yet. "With today's data, it goes without saying that there is still not a shred of evidence that Canada's housing market is tapering off," said Marc Levesque, chief fixed-income strategist at TD Securities. "Construction activity is proceeding at a red-hot clip, resale activity remains solid, and building permits are not even hinting at a slowdown," he said. And that could increase pressure on the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge up its trend-setting short-term interest rate. The central bank has already boosted rates five times since last fall as a pre-emptive strike against inflation. At the time of its last increase in early March, when central bankers raised their overnight rate to 3.75 per cent, they indicated they were almost finished tightening. However, strong economic data - including a record low jobless rate of 6.3 per cent in March, the lowest in 32 years - is raising speculation that the Bank of Canada may have to raise rates a few more times to keep the economy from overheating. Its next scheduled chance to change interest rates comes on April 25. Prospects for higher interest rates initially gave the loonie a boost on Monday morning but it didn't hold and the dollar ended the day 0.03 of a cent lower at 87.03 US. The housing report wasn't completely good news, carrying the seeds of a possible slowdown in the months ahead. Construction of apartments and condos outpaced single-family homes in March, hinting at some weakening to come, warned CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan. Toronto and Montreal in particular saw apartment starts surge last month, he said. At the same time, "single starts decreased for a second consecutive month, suggesting that the pace of new-home starts will begin to pull back." On a seasonally adjusted basis, urban starts rose 4.7 per cent to 219,700 units in March. Multiple starts, or new construction of apartment and condominium buildings, rose 18.6 per cent to 123,000 units between February and March, while construction of stand-alone houses fell 8.9 per cent to 96,700 units. Residential construction got a lift in the first quarter from unusually warm weather, adding fuel to the Canadian economy, said Scotia Economics analysts Sarah Hughes. That could "diminish somewhat in the second quarter as declining affordability, rising construction costs and a cooling resale market tempers housing demand," she wrote in a note to investors Monday. But other factors will continue to prop up the market, Hughes added. "While starts are expected to trend downward in 2006, Canada's generational-low unemployment rate and respectable wage gains should continue to support a historically high level of residential construction." For the first three months of the year, actual urban starts were up 19.1 per cent from the first quarter of 2005, with all regions of the country gaining on last year. Single-home starts were up 16.7 per cent, while multiples were up 21.1 per cent. In March, a jump in apartment construction in Montreal meant the Quebec region led Canada with a 21.2 per cent increase in urban housing starts, to 48,100 units. Urban starts declined in the Atlantic region and Ontario, and were virtually unchanged in British Columbia. |
HOUSING STARTS ON RECORD PACE (2006-04-06)
By JACK WILSON Apr 11 2006
HOUSING STARTS ON RECORD PACE
Red Deer's housing market continues to flourish with another record in the books for the first quarter of the year. Bryan Yu, market analyst with the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. in Calgary, said on Monday that Red Deer chalked up its highest year-to-date performance on record. Yu said in the first three months of the year, 246 single-detached homes were started in the city. That represents a 71 per cent increase over a similar period in 2005 when 144 single detached homes were started. Red Deer's pace among Alberta centres ranked only behind Grande Prairie, which recorded a 83 per cent rise in single-detached homes with 227 starts in the first quarter. Some 102 units were launched in March in Red Deer while 85 were started in February and 59 in January. "Solid employment growth, a tight resale market and low vacancy rates have ensured strength in the new home market," Yu said. Scott Boyd, executive officer with the Central Alberta Homebuilders' Association, could only chuckle and say "wow," when asked about the building pace. Boyd said a shortage of workers of all kinds from skilled trades to labourers is still a major concern for builders in the 150-member association. "That's definitely on top of the minds of our members," Boyd said. The shortage may ease temporarily with the arrival of oilpatch workers who are experiencing spring breakup. Boyd said the building forecast is for continued steady demand. "All our forecasts are saying that it will continue until 2009. But can the people continue?" he wondered. Boyd said cement shortages are a worry but supplies of wood products are still good. The average cost to build a home now is about $150 per square foot in Red Deer. Yu said total starts still lagged behind the record pace of 2002. Multi-family starts fell by 10 per cent in the first quarter to 58 units compared with 65 in the first quarter of 2005. Yu said the availability of serviced land continues to limit multi-family activity. The total residential building figure is 46 per cent ahead of last year's first quarter with a total of 304 units compared with 209 in 2005. The torrid pace of construction across Alberta is evident through an examination of the province's major urban centres. A total of 8,888 housing starts were recorded in the first quarter, representing an increase of 36 per cent from 2005 statistics. Calgary building jumped 40 per cent while Edmonton had a 42 per cent increase. Lethbridge grew 36 per cent while Medicine Hat jumped 62 per cent. |
Developers voice concerns (2006-04-06)
Developers voice concerns
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By HARLEY RICHARDS Advocate business editor
Complaints about house prices are commonplace in Red Deer. On Wednesday, two private sector land developers offered an explanation. They also did a little complaining of their own. Laebon Homes owner Gord Bontje and Melcor Developments regional manager Guy Pelletier spoke at a Red Deer Chamber of Commerce Ambassadors lunch. Taking turns at the microphone, they described some of the challenges facing their companies and the construction industry. Bontje expressed frustration with a perceived lack of long-term municipal planning. “Has anybody ever stopped to think what Red Deer is going to look like with 200,000 people? With 500,000 people or a million people? I think those are the kinds of visions that we need. “Let’s think out that far so that we’re not sitting there saying, ‘Gee, I don’t have an acre of commercial land because I forgot something 10 years ago.” Bontje also implored city and county officials to resolve their current dispute over the development of land on Red Deer’s boundaries. “City and county, please get your acts together,” he said. “I can’t forcefully enough encourage you to make it a Number 1 priority.” The comment drew applause from the pro-business audience. Bontje also voiced concerns about tight municipal restrictions on things like street lights and trees. In many cases, he said, there are no longer good reasons for such rules and they make it hard to design creative neighbourhoods, he said. Among Pelletier’s concerns is the scarcity of labour — a problem that has had a big impact on the construction industry. “You just have to accept that things are going to take longer and cost a bit more.” Pelletier also described shortages of materials like cement, pipe and even trees. And while residential land is not currently a restraint, increased supplies would help developers with their long-range planning. “We need to know where we’re going next.” To illustrate the speed with which current land inventories are being consumed, Pelletier compared Melcor’s Ironstone subdivision, which was developed in about 12 months, to Victoria Park and Eastview, which took more than 12 and 15 years to complete respectively. He added that a big reason for the rising cost of residential lots is the off-site levies needed to pay for things like roads and utilities that service new neighbourhoods. “The cost increases have been dramatic over the last few years,” he said, describing a 100 per cent jump since 2000. Part of the problem has been the redirection of provincial grant monies from new subdivisions to other municipal priorities, said Pelletier. “We used to get up to 75 per cent of those off-site projects paid for through those grant dollars. Now it’s zero.” He said the fault does not rest entirely with the municipality, which has limited resources. “The levels of government that have the money need to share it with those that are spending it locally.” Pelletier stressed that his and Bontje’s comments shouldn’t be seen as complaints, but rather observations of the challenges that exist. Both men marvelled at the current high demand for housing in Red Deer. Bontje pointed out that there were 1,118 housing starts in Red Deer last year, compared with about 150 in 1995. Pelletier added that Melcor sold more than 500 residential lots in the city last year, up from 37 lots 10 years earlier. Bontje ended his presentation with a sombre observation: the construction boom will end. “It’s absolutely, guaranteed not sustainable.” | |
Area home sales skyrocketing (2006-03-08)
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| Area home sales skyrocketing |
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By harley richards Advocate business editor The year is shaping up to be a good one for moving companies, as Central Alberta homes continue to change hands at a frantic pace. The Red Deer and District Real Estate Board Co-op is reporting the completion of 357 residential sales through the multiple listing service last month. That’s up from 227 in February 2005. The city of Red Deer accounted for 168 of February’s sales. The average selling price of a single-detached house was $243,168, up from $202,159 in February 2005. Townhouses in the city averaged $138,461, up from $117,772, with the figure for apartment condominiums $120,510, as compared with $142,857 a year earlier. Outside the city, the average price of single-detached homes sold during the month was $184,618, up from $158,509 in February 2005. Townhouses averaged $138,100, as compared with the year-ago figure of $116,680, and apartment condos $129,200, up from $107,133. MLS sales on a region-by-region basis last month were as follows (February 2005 figures in brackets): Red Deer and Red Deer County — 183 (125), Sylvan Lake — 44 (27), Lacombe and Lacombe County — 30 (18), Stettler and Stettler County — 19 (13), Rocky Mountain House and Clearwater County — 14 (10), Innisfail — 13 (12), Ponoka and Ponoka County — 10 (six), Blackfalds — nine (13), Camrose and Camrose County — nine (zero), Rimbey — eight (one), Three Hills and Kneehill County — six (one), Wetaskiwin County — four (one), Eckville — two (zero), Flagstaff County — two (zero), outside of the Board area — two (zero), Olds — one (zero), Trochu — one (zero), Sundre and Mountain View County — zero (zero), Bashaw — zero (zero), Paintearth County — zero (zero), Leduc County — zero (zero), Brazeau County — zero (zero). The Real Estate Board has cautioned that it can be misleading to generalize on the basis of average price information. Numbers can vary significantly between geographic areas. | |
Red Deer's future (2005-02-14)

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Feb 14 2005 Red Deer's future
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Photo by RANDY FIEDLER/Advocate staff Range Road 271, on the city's east edge, could become 20th Avenue, a four-lane ring road. By paul cowley Advocate staff A new bridge across the river could lead to a bustling commercial centre at 20th Avenue and an extended 67th Street. And 20th Avenue would be a divided expressway serving a huge new residential area in the southeast corner of Red Deer. A city growth study nearing completion seeks to project how 50 years of development may affect the city. Only four years ago, a similar study was completed. But the city's rapid growth soon made it clear that a study meant to last a decade was already running behind the times. City development services director Bryon Jeffers said growth rates are difficult to predict. The growth strategy is at most a best guess, but in the short term there is little to suggest the city's growth will grind to a halt. "What we read and what people tell us, the TD (Toronto Dominion Bank) reports, stuff like that, there's no sign of it levelling off any time soon." Red Deer remains the centre of one of the fastest growing economic corridors in Canada. Nearly 260 square km was reviewed in the latest study and demographic, economic, recreational and employment trends anticipated to paint a picture of the city as it grows. For instance, household sizes are expected to continue decreasing at the same time that housing is more densely packed into neighbourhoods. At the same time, as some retailers shift away from traditional malls, new commercial sites must be developed similar to the power centres of south Gaetz Avenue. Industrial land is badly needed and the city is looking at 1,300 acres in Red Deer County northwest of the city. Those needs and looming annexation prompted the growth study update. The county is also undertaking its own growth study. The city's growth study looks at three population thresholds and projects how much land must be developed by the time the population hits 90,000 around 2015, 115,000 in 2030 and160,000 in 2054. What the city has come up with is a growth plan that predicts housing will spread along the east edge of the city. A new bridge across the river could lead to an expressway creating a ring road along 20th Avenue that would eventually connect up with Hwy 2 south of Gasoline Alley. Commercial developments could spring up along Hwy 11A on the north edge of the city and at the intersection of an extended 67th Street at 20th Avenue. A new industrial park would follow the annexation of county land west of Hwy 2. Residential Future residential development is expected to sprout along the east side of the city. The city has about 2,300 acres of residential land, including about 2,000 acres of recently annexed county land, that should last until the population hits 90,000. The first areas expected to be developed are the recently annexed lands north and east of College Park on 30th Avenue. Next to see housing will be a swath of land further east straddling what will be 20th Avenue. It is anticipated that development will occur as the population passes 90,000 and heads to 115,000. The Hazlett Lake area north of Hwy 11A at the northwest corner of the city is also seen as residential in that time period. The city is expected to continue expanding east in future decades. Not all future growth areas are shown in the city. A number of areas remain to be developed such as vacant land south of Bower and Sunnybrook neighbourhoods and the Michener lands. Melcor Developments Ltd. owns about 140 acres just south of 67th Street and east of Michener's north buildings. That land is expected to be developed as residential and commercial beginning in 2006, said Melcor regional manager Guy Pelletier. When the rest of the Michener site will be developed is unclear. It is anticipated that if the site is sold by the province, it will be used for residential development. Future developers would face additional costs because of the aging Michener buildings on the site. Pelletier said those would have to be demolished or incorporated into subdivision plans somehow. In the shorter term, Melcor will develop the last of its land bordering 30th Avenue. The west side will be developed this year and the east side next year. Pelletier said the growth study projections make sense. "I don't think there are any surprises from our perspective to see growth in the northeast side of the city, which is kind of what we had in mind for a number of years." Outside of the Hazlett Lake area, there is not much room to develop residential housing in the north. And Delburne Road remains the city's southern boundary in the study. There are disadvantages to loading up residential development on the east side of the city. As the industrial area is developed in the northwest, an increasing number of people will make cross-town trips to work in future years. "It sort of makes that transportation an issue," he said, adding he is not sure how that could be avoided. Home builder and developer Gord Bontje said the growth study is on the right track. "I think the direction is really excellent and I support them." He agrees that some in the development community have questioned residential and industrial development occurring on opposite sides of the city, but doubts they could be squeezed closer together. "I think Red Deer is maybe too small for that. That competes with the fact that industrial likes to be next to industrial." Bontje's company Laebon Developments Ltd. owns 270 acres east of College Park on 30th Avenue that is planned for residential development in 2006. Bontje agrees with making land available for commercial sites in the east. "The city needs commercial land, period. The logical spot to put commercial is on the east side because that's where the population base is." Commercial sites in the north end off Hwy 11A also have potential because they would be on a major route for many workers returning home once the Northland Drive bridge is built across the river. The city anticipates the bridge could be taking traffic around 2012. Industrial When the city's last growth study was released in 2000, it was assumed that the next industrial parks would be built south of the city next to the landfill site. But those plans changed. City development services director Bryon Jeffers said various reviews of the city's industrial needs shifted focus northwest of the city on county land across Hwy 2. Key in favour of developing that area first was its proximity to water and wastewater plants. Servicing a southern industrial site would require building expensive pipelines nearly the length of the city. Marketing a highway site will also be easier. Jeffers said the highway had previously been seen as a barrier to future development, although there was never a policy in place saying that would not happen. "There has been a shift in philosophy obviously since the 2000 study." Negotiations have begun with the county over a proposal to annex about 1,300 acres. The process is expected to take about two years. City council heard during recent budget talks that an offer has been received on the last piece of city-owned industrial land, although 60 to 80 acres are held privately. Developer Norman Chiles said the city faces a serious shortage of industrial land and believes it will take five years before new land can be brought on line. "First thing they have to get the county on side, and annexation approved, then you have to get services approved." The city will lose business to Sylvan Lake, Blackfalds, Nisku and other locations in the meantime. "I bet you in the last year I have had inquiries from 10 people who want more than five acres," he said, adding most were oilpatch-related. Commercial Future commercial growth in the city is seen as happening in the north and east parts of the city. A strip of commercially zoned land could be developed on the north side of Hwy 11A between Taylor Drive and Gaetz Avenue. Another commercial centre could be built at what would become the intersection of a realigned Hwy 11A and 20th Avenue on the east side of the city. What kinds of developments will eventually sprout up in those places - or even if they will - depends on the market, said city director of development services Bryon Jeffers. "It could be a Southpointe-type call or it could be a Bower-type mall." Jeffers said the city is planning a more detailed plan of future commercial sites on its growth map. That marks commercial sites with circles, but developers want to know how many acres are being considered. Another 7.5-acre commercial site - about the size of the East Hill commercial site at 30th Avenue and 22nd Street where Save-On Foods is located - is planned for a 140-acre Melcor-owned site east of Michener's north site. But there is already discussion whether that is enough land, said Melcor regional manager Guy Pelletier. Most eastside residents must travel to Gaetz Avenue to reach restaurants and other shops. "Maybe it's time to bring restaurants and that sort of thing a little further east to where people are living." Developer Norman Chiles has about 190 acres in the city's north end including 52 acres identified in the growth plan as highway commercial north of Hwy 11A and west of Hwy 2A. The spot would be ideal for a shopping centre development although there may be some access issues off Hwy 11A to be resolved. If an overpass is built over railway tracks in the area, entry points into commercial development would be affected. Chiles said the city must extend its services to north of Hwy 11A before major developments can go ahead because of the need for water for fire protection. Commercial sites must also be built on the east side of town. Unless commercial is built along with expanding residential areas, residents will all have to drive out of the area for most of their shopping needs. Roads Among the biggest projects facing the city is a new bridge across the river. The extension of Northlands Drive across the river in the north end is expected to cost about $30 million. Planning is expected to start in 2007 and by 2012 the bridge could be in place. When depends on growth. The route will not only serve local traffic. Connecting with Hwy 11A, it will take traffic west of the city through to destinations such as Joffre. Another part of the road puzzle is 20th Avenue. When fully completed, it will likely be developed as an expressway, taking traffic around the core of the city to hook up with Hwy 2 south of Gasoline Alley. The province also plans to extend 67th Street to join up with Hwy 11 east of the city. That work is not expected to happen for more than 20 years.
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